Martino Grasselli, coordinateur de la recherche du De Vinci Finance Lab, laboratoire de recherche commun à l’EMLv et l’ESILV, vient de publier un article dans la revue Journal of Banking an Finance, revue classée rang 1 FNEGE.
Un article de Jan Baldeauxa, Martino Grasselli, Eckhard Platen.
This paper considers the realistic modelling of derivative contracts on exchange rates. We propose a stochastic volatility model that recovers not only the typically observed implied volatility smiles and skews for short dated vanilla foreign exchange options but allows one also to price payoffs in foreign currencies, lower than possible under classical risk neutral pricing, in particular, for long dated derivatives. The main reason for this important feature is the strict supermartingale property of benchmarked savings accounts under the real world probability measure, which the calibrated parameters identify under the proposed model. Using a real dataset on vanilla option quotes, we calibrate our model on a triangle of currencies and find that the risk neutral approach fails for the calibrated model, while the benchmark approach still works.
Forex market; Smile and skew of vanilla options; 3/2 Stochastic volatility model; Strict local martingale; Model calibration; Benchmark approach
Journal of Banking & Finance – Volume 53, April 2015, Pages 34–48